A new update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) shows that there was a 60% chance of La Nia conditions emerging towards the end of this year.
Latest forecasts from WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts indicate a 55% likelihood of a transition from the current neutral conditions (neither El Nio nor La Nia) to La Nia conditions during September to November this year.
The WMO yesterday said this likelihood increased to 60% from October this year to February next year, with the chance of El Nio redeveloping during this time being negligible.
Celeste Saulo, WMO secretary-general, said that since June last year, people had seen an extended streak of exceptional global land and sea surface temperature.
Even if a short-term cooling La Nia event does emerge, it will not change the long-term trajectory of rising global temperatures due to heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, Saulo said.
