South Africans Head To The Polls In Crucial Election

South Africans vote in an election on Wednesday that looks set to reshape a political landscape dominated for three decades by the party that Nelson Mandela led to power.

The ANC has won every vote since the end of white-minority rule in 1994, but its support slipped from a peak of almost 70% in 2004 to 57.5% in 2019, and most opinion polls point to it losing its parliamentary majority for the first time.

While the party has dismissed the surveys, there's widespread disgruntlement over a 33% unemployment rate, one of the world's highest crime rates and the collapse of government services across much of the country.

"South Africa's general election is a watershed moment in the political history of the country," said Aleix Montana, Southern Africa analyst at risk adviser Verisk Maplecroft. "Voter discontent is driven by the ANC government's failure to address a plethora of socioeconomic issues."

Many analysts estimate the ANC may stay above 45%. That would allow it to retain power by forming an alliance with one or more smaller parties and exclude its main rivals - particularly former President Jacob Zuma's MK Party and the radical leftist Economic Freedom Fighters, which have both pledged to nationalise land and mines and would seek major concessions on policy and appointments. It would also likely omit the business-friendly Democratic Alliance, currently the main opposition.

The ANC is banking on the popularity of President Cyril Ramaphosa, 71, to help shore up its support. He had the highest approval rating among party leaders in a survey published this week by polling company Ipsos - albeit with a score of 5.1 out of 10. Zuma ranked second with 3.7 and the EFF's leader Julius Malema third with 3.5.

More than a third of the 2 545 registered voters surveyed said that no party aligns with their views - reinforcing the findings of other polls that many people are undecided on who to support, and may opt out of voting. Voter turnout was 47% in the 2019 national election.

In the ANC's final election rally in Johannesburg's FNB stadium at the weekend, Ramaphosa emphasised the strides the party has made over the past 30 years, including extending monthly welfare grants to almost half the population. He repeated that message in an address screened by the public broadcaster on 26 May, drawing criticism that he was abusing state resources to campaign.

DA leader John Steenhuisen, 48, has touted his party's record in running Cape Town and the Western Cape as evidence of its ability to do a better job than the ANC of governing the country. The economic growth rate in the region has consistently exceeded the national average, while the unemployment rate is markedly lower.

Malema, 43, has sought to rally support among younger voters, while Zuma has tapped into his popularity among his predominantly fellow Zulu speakers in his home province of KwaZulu-Natal to build up his new party. The 82-year-old led South Africa for almost nine scandal-tainted years before the ANC forced him to step down in 2018 and replaced him with Ramaphosa.

Police are on high alert for any signs of election unrest after Zuma questioned the impartiality of the Electoral Commission and members of his party allegedly breached a warehouse where ballot papers were being stored. KwaZulu-Natal, Eastern Cape and Gauteng have been flagged as the highest-risk areas. Sthembile Cele and Mike Cohen, with Julius Domoney, (c) 2024 Bloomberg LP