Overcapacity And Geopolitics Continue To Challenge Liner Trade

The ocean freight market in 2025 is projected to experience moderate growth, but overcapacity from new vessel deliveries is exerting downward pressure on market rates, according to the latest report from Dimerco Express Group.

According to the Taiwanese freight forwarding platforms April Freight Report , several transformative trends are expected to reshape the global shipping landscape.

The introduction of new vessels has led to softening freight rates. Carriers are employing strategies like blank sailings and slow steaming to stabilise pricing amidst excess capacity.

US tariffs on Chinese-built vessels and selected imports are accelerating a shift away from China. This has resulted in increased cargo flows from Southeast Asia and boosted intra-Asia trade. However, infrastructure constraints in the region may lead to congestion and rate volatility .

The ongoing realignment of trade routes reflects geopolitical tensions and policy changes, with carriers focusing more on emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the Indian subcontinent.

The report by Dimerco, which has 160 offices across 17 countries, also underscores the broader implications of these shifts.

As manufacturing activity moves away from China, Southeast Asia is absorbing more production capacity. This trend is expected to enhance intra-Asia trade flows while creating potential bottlenecks at regional ports.

The market could face significant oversupply later this year due to anticipated vessel deliveries. Freight rates may deteriorate rapidly if geopolitical uncertainties such as the Red Sea crisis are resolved suddenly.