Overnight computer models waffled on the outlook for a disturbance we've been following in the southwestern and central Caribbean, softening its development prospects and pushing back the development window into early next week.
It's still to be seen if the about-face is a bearish trend with the models or a short-term blip. Regardless, the overall environment for the system remains fairly conducive for gradual organization into the weekend and the National Hurricane Center is maintaining a medium chance for formation of a tropical depression or named storm as it loiters about in the Caribbean into next week.
The next name on the list is Patty.
In no hurry to form or moveAs we discussed in yesterday's newsletter, the area of storminess will take some time to cook and will drift about in the southwestern and central Caribbean for the next 5 days or so.
It's not until around Election Day next week that we see steering currents begin to strengthen, and high pressure building to the north should begin to guide the system northwestward toward Central America or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by the middle part of next week.
