Forecast models continue to advertise slow tropical development beginning next week across the northwestern Caribbean, with a system that could pivot into the southern Gulf of Mexico by the middle to latter part of the week.
The verdict's still out on how much the initially broad area of low pressure and storminess organizes, but the trends since yesterday have been slower and westward with development, with models favoring more land interaction with Central America and southern Mexico which could serve as a temporary speed bump for the first half of next week.
Storminess on the riseToday we're starting to see the very early stages of the parent disturbance - a large, sprawling area of storminess and low pressure called the Central American Gyre or CAG - set up from the eastern Pacific into the western Caribbean and southern Gulf.
The CAG will slowly shift westward this weekend and then northward early next week, with lower pressures and more concentrated storminess forming along its northeast flank over the northwestern Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico by middle next week.
It's at this stage - beginning next Wednesday or Thursday - that computer models suggest more earnest development could occur.
