Elon Musk Predicts A Robot-dominated Workplace - How Likely Is It?

Still, as a call to arms, I expect Musk's enthusiasm to resonate loudly in Europe. Labour shortages, demographic decline and a political class desperate to curb dependence on foreign workers will put robotics and automation high on the priority list. Just don't ask how firms can afford it.

If robots look increasingly tempting as a techno-solution, it's not as a cynical replacement for the lumps of flesh and bone currently working on factory floors, but to get more out of a shrinking workforce. Europe is the oldest continent by median age - Italy alone is almost on par with Japan - and fertility, another of Musk's obsessions, is cratering. Competition for new recruits to replace retiring workers is also getting tougher as a result of on-shoring in the wake of Covid-19. An EU report has identified about 40 occupations including construction and healthcare hit by "widespread" shortages, with some too reliant on a shallow pool of cheap labour.

So, what's the catch? One is that hype is self-defeating. Talk up bots too much and you run the risk of disappointment. Safety concerns could prove justified, while some sectors might be harder to automate than others: the Japanese experience shows how services like care for the elderly are a real tough nut to crack even in high-tech countries. Maxime Sbaihi, author of a new book on falling birth rates, warns that Japan will struggle to meet a worker shortfall of 11 million by 2040 with automation alone.