After its most active start to October on record and following a spate of 5 hurricanes - including 3 major hurricanes - in less than 2 weeks, the Atlantic is throttling back to a more reasonable pace for middle October.
The only game in town this week will be Invest 94L, a low-pressure swirl spinning harmlessly westward through the open Atlantic between Africa and the Caribbean. 94L is moisture-starved and will likely struggle to ignite much in the way of organized showers and thunderstorms for at least the next few days while it stays in a dry environment.
By middle to later this week, however, conditions may become more conducive for modest development as it moves near or north of the easternmost Caribbean islands. Given the trajectory in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands, it's worth watching for those with interests or travel plans in the eastern Caribbean.
For now, at least, the consensus lifts the system far enough north by Friday and Saturday to avoid any direct entanglements with the islands - including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands - but we'll want to follow the trends this week for any southern shifts.
Is Invest 94L a problem for the mainland U.S.?It's still a little early to speculate whether 94L could slip far enough west to be a troublemaker for the U.S., but right now the odds aren't in its favor.
