On Tuesday evening, the National Hurricane Center outlined an area of possible tropical development in the western Caribbean for early next week.
The system, which we began discussing in this newsletter on Monday, is expected to develop within a larger area of spin known as the Central American Gyre or CAG which periodically occurs in May and June and again from September to November, extending from the eastern Pacific into the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico.
Within this Central American Gyre, more defined areas of spin can take shape, which is what our computer models are indicating come the early to middle part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico.
This scenario of western Caribbean development later in September and October by way of the Central American Gyre was something we covered back in August as we discussed areas to watch for the back half of the season.
Because the initial disturbance is so large and sprawling, it's unclear exactly where within this broader CAG a defined area of low pressure will ultimately form. For now, forecast models indicate the most likely formation zone will be somewhere over the northwestern Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico by the middle part of next week.
