Eskoms recent performance indicates a promising outlook for the summer season, with the potential for a load shedding-free period. This optimism follows a successful winter, during which the power utility managed five consecutive months without load shedding.
The Generation Operational Recovery Plan, initiated in March 2023, has improved Eskoms efficiency and fleet performance, said Dan Marokane , Eskom Group CEO, at the State of Eskoms Business and Summer Outlook media briefing on August 26.
Eskom surpassed its planned maintenance target of 3677 MW, achieving an average of 4799 MW during winter. Based on the improved generation performance, the base case scenario indicates that there will be no load shedding this summer if unplanned outages stay at 13000 MW or below, he said.
A reduction in reliance on Open-Cycle Gas Turbines led to a 74% decrease in diesel costs, saving over R10 billion. Predictions suggest ongoing performance can contribute to potential growth in the economy of around 2%, Marokane said.
Other highlights from Eskoms winter performance include an average Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) of 12 400 MW, representing a 20% improvement from previous figures. Furthermore, the Energy Availability Factor (EAF) increased from 57% in April to 67% by July.
The revised summer outlook has been adjusted downward by 1 500 MW from the previous year, reflecting a more stable operational environment. If unplanned outages increase to 14 000 MW, Stage 1 load shedding might be necessary, while outages reaching 15 000 MW could result in Stage 2.
The power utility aims to add approximately 2 500 MW of generation capacity by January 2025, said Bheki Nxumalo , Eskom Group Executive of Generation. Koeberg Nuclear Power Station Unit 2 is expected to return to service later this year, adding 930 MW to the grid. Kusile Unit 6 will synchronise with the grid for the first time in December, adding 800 MW of capacity. The return of Medupi Unit 4 after an extended outage will add another 800 MW before the financial year-end.
By restoring capacity to the power grid, the utility has not only halted power outages, but also established a reserve in case there are delays in bringing additional units back online, he said. The impacts will be much less severe, especially as we continue to focus on increasing the generation capacity of the fleet.
He said the power utility was also focused on reducing municipal arrears, improving measures to tackle crime and corruption, and developing a proficient workforce to ensure its long-term success.
The company is also advancing plans for the legal separation of its operations, establishing independent generation and distribution subsidiaries, and launching 2 000 MW of clean energy projects as part of its sustainable energy strategy.
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